Security situation

The past few days have seen incidents of unrest and violence in Cameroon that are starting to make their way into international media, so I thought it worth saying something about the security situation and my own personal safety. The basic points are that the situation is quite serious, but that at the moment there is no direct threat to my own safety. It's just a case of being careful, not moving about much at night and avoiding certain areas.

In terms of the general situation, the tipping point was a strike organised by taxi drivers, whose stated grievance was rising fuel prices. However, to use the analogy that one of my colleagues just used with me, it was the final drop that made a brimming cup overflow. It didn't take too long after getting here for me to form the impression that the stability and calm that this country has 'enjoyed' for many years couldn't last forever, although I didn't think anything would happen so soon. People have deep-seated and often justified grievances with this government. While the most pressing concerns are the rising fuel and food prices, which have a heavy impact upon day-to-day life, many people are also concerned about the recently expressed desire of the president (Paul Biya) to modify the constitution to allow himself extra terms in office, as well as years of heavy corruption and a lack of development. Add to that the long-running tension between the Anglophone minority and the primarily Francophone government, and it is in many ways surprising that it has been so stable for so long.

Political grievances and general frustration came into play - along with some opportunism as seems common when violent situations arise - and the strikes were accompanied by violence, with looting and burning of property and some reported deaths. The number of people killed over the last few days seems to be widely reported as eight, although in reality I think the number is higher. I had already heard that eight people had died a couple of days ago when the problems were confined mainly to Douala and a few other areas, and now it has spread to other areas. Just last night there were four deaths in Yaounde, people who had apparently been shot by the police as protesters and police faced off. This article puts the total number who have died at 17 but I imagine that even that is on the low side.

So the situation is serious and it's hard to tell how long it will last. Biya gave a speech at 8pm last night which was not at all conciliatory. He blamed the problems on opposition movements who he said were manipulating the youth into these actions. He said that these people wanted to gain through violence what they could not gain through the ballot box, and that he would do anything within the law to restore law and order. So, heavy police crackdowns by the sounds of it.

He's a clever speaker and always casts himself as a defender of democracy in his speeches. Even his plan to fiddle with the constitution to give himself longer in the power was framed in terms of benefiting democracy: the two-term limit, he said, was contrary to the principles of democratic choice. Just remember that this guy knows how to rig an election or two. He knows that this speech won't help national reconciliation, his only concern is not to concede any power.

In terms of my own situation, I feel fairly secure. The majority of the problems are in other parts of the country, particularly in Douala and Bamenda, although in the last couple of days it has spread to here. The problems within Yaounde seem quite localised, with the majority of unrest in poorer parts of town and in central areas. Here in Bastos we are a little bit out of town and it is a much richer area. That doesn't mean that we're immune from problems, but it does make it generally more secure as there are many guards for the embassies and private residences.

That said, there was gunfire heard near here last night after the speech (it was policemen firing into the air apparently), so there is certainly no reason to be complacent. I'm in touch with the British High Commission here, who are my main port of call should there be any real emergency, and have a couple of friends at other NGOs who live in the same area and who are keeping an eye on my welfare, for which I am grateful. My own employer, it has to be said, is not doing a great deal, but I have my own contacts and am sufficiently well connected should anything deteriorate.

I think the main reason not to be too concerned is that the most serious incidents seem to have occurred when protesters and police have been squaring off. By not being anywhere near this kind of situation you are already avoiding the worst of it. The looters are - from a security perspective if not an economic and livelihoods one - less of a problem, and their activity should be quelled by the heightened police presence.

Things do seem to have been calmer today. I've seen a fair few police out and about and a military helicopter flew past just a couple of hours ago. This is the first major response from the state it seems, so we will see how people react.